“The Coalition’s massive victory”. “A loss that will see the ALP in opposition for potentially a decade”. “A massive win for Tony Abbott that will guarantee him the next election.”
I’m sure we’ve all heard something along these lines over the past couple of months. We’ve been told the story that the Coalition romped it home in the 2013 election, that they have a massive mandate to implement their agenda (whatever that is) and that there is no chance that the ALP could turn things around in the next three years. The ALP needs to start licking its wounds and prepare for a long stint in opposition.
It is an interesting piece of the re-writing of history that doesn’t actually reflect any reality.
Don’t get me wrong, the Coalition’s victory was impressive. They won the election with a 53.45 – 46.55% of the two-party preferred vote, winning 90 seats to the ALP’s 55. A decent election yes and one that provides the ALP with a significant challenge to turn things around by 2016. The ALP needs to find 20 seats across the country to win Government, a tough thing to do.
But history, the very thing that many use to argue that the ALP has no chance, could actually show the opposite. A sharp turnaround in fortunes is certainly not impossible.
For example, in 1996, the Coalition beat the ALP with a 53.63% – 46.37% two party preferred margin, winning 94 seats to the ALP’s 49. The two-party preferred is almost identical to 2013, but with the Coalition winning 4 more seats in 1996 than they did in 2013. A couple of years later though and every thing had turned around. In 1998 the ALP won the popular vote 50.98% – 49.02%, picking up 18 seats, closing the margin to 80 – 67. The Coalition only won because of successfully sandbagging in a number of areas.
Have a look at the next change of Government election and you can see similar trends. In 2007, the ALP won the popular vote 52.70% – 47.30%, with a margin of 83 – 65 seats – less than the current margin for the Coalition, but still significant. In 2010 though the Coalition had turned things around, losing the vote only by a 50.12% – 49.88% margin, and equalling the seat total at 72 all. This victory is actually more significant when you factor in the massive honeymoon the ALP received after the 07 election, a honeymoon that saw polling showing them potentially smashing the Coalition in the 2010 election.
What these numbers show is that in 2013 the Coalition had a pretty decent election win, but one that certainly can be turned around. The Coalition certainly does not have the sort of massive victory that we saw in the recent NSW and QLD elections which basically gave the Coalition/LNP such margins that it is virtually impossible for the ALP to win the next election.
And this is significantly more important when you take into account the fact that the Coalition has had virtually no honeymoon since their election. For example, an Essential Poll on the 15th of October saw the Coalition with a 52-48 margin, a drop in their vote since the election. Further polls on the 22nd of October had the Coalition with a 53-47 margin (Essential) or a 51.5 – 48.5 margin (Morgan). This is largely different to both the new Howard and Rudd Governments who saw decent honeymoon periods after they were elected. What this potentially shows is what many people tend to anecdotally believe. The Coalition won largely because the ALP lost. They were not the extremely popular opposition that many wanted to take over from the ALP, giving them a very weak base to govern from.
We seem to have a very essentialist view of elections. We look at the last election and determine that that is what will define the outcome of future elections. In 1996 the ALP was inherently destined to a decade in opposition, the same for the Coalition in 2007. But the history shows that what we decide on past elections doesn’t actually come true (even if the ALP did stay in opposition for 10 years after Howard was elected – a fate that was almost avoided in 1998).
Three years is a very long time in politics. Things change, campaigns create winners, and people’s views can shift. The idea that we will inherently have Tony Abbott for the next 10 years doesn’t actually reflect a political reality and for many on the left is a weak and defeatist approach.
Is defeating Tony Abbott at the next election going to be tough? Absolutely yes. But history shows us that it is absolutely not impossible. This Government is already on shaky ground and a decent campaign could easily topple them.